Modelo vs. azar
Construimos un modelo estadístico de tendencias y lo pusimos a competir contra el azar. Antes de cada sorteo congelamos su jugada; después la comparamos con el resultado real. Este es el marcador, sin maquillaje.
Con 95 % de confianza, el promedio real del modelo está entre 0.83 y 1.23; el azar (0.92) cae dentro de ese rango.
¿Cuántos aciertos por sorteo?
Sorteos con 0, 1, 2… naturales acertados, contra lo que se esperaría eligiendo 6 números al azar.
| Aciertos | Modelo (sorteos) | Azar (esperados) |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22 | 23.1 |
| 1 | 27 | 29.7 |
| 2 | 14 | 12.8 |
| 3 | 5 | 2.3 |
Jugada de cobertura
Además de la jugada principal, el modelo congela 3 boletos de 6 sin números repetidos (posiciones 1–6, 7–12 y 13–18 de su ranking). Repartir los números no cambia el promedio, pero sí sube la probabilidad de que algún boleto pegue 2 o 3.
| Al menos un boleto con… | Modelo | Azar (3 boletos) | Diferencia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 o más aciertos | 25.0 % | 58.5 % | -1.4 errores estándar |
| 3 o más aciertos | 0.0 % | 10.7 % | -0.7 errores estándar |
4 sorteos evaluados con cobertura. Aún son muy pocos para sacar conclusiones. Jugar más boletos cuesta más y el retorno esperado por peso es el mismo: solo cambia qué tan seguido ves resultados pequeños.
¿Existen los números calientes?
En las últimas 20 jugadas el modelo usó solo 20 números distintos de 39. Los que más repite: 22 (20 veces), 30 (20 veces), 26 (19 veces), 21 (18 veces), 7 (12 veces), 19 (7 veces).
Un modelo de tendencias tiende a insistir en los mismos números. El sorteo no tiene memoria: cada combinación tiene la misma probabilidad en cada concurso, así que repetirlos no la mejora.
Cómo leer este marcador
Si eliges 6 de 39 números y se sortean 6, los aciertos siguen una distribución hipergeométrica: promedio 0.92 y desviación estándar 0.82 por sorteo. Con 68 sorteos, el error estándar del promedio es 0.100. Una diferencia menor a 2 errores estándar es indistinguible del azar. Detalle del modelo: metodología de tendencias.
Próximo concurso #1681: ver ranking y jugada del modelo →
Descargar CSV (predicciones evaluadas)
Sorteo por sorteo
| Concurso | Modelo | Reales | Aciertos | Números OK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1680 | 19, 21, 22, 24, 26, 30 | 1, 8, 9, 19, 34, 39 +6 | 1 | 19 |
| 1679 | 5, 7, 21, 22, 26, 30 | 3, 7, 11, 17, 19, 28 +22 | 1 +adic | 7 |
| 1678 | 19, 21, 22, 26, 30, 33 | 5, 8, 18, 23, 24, 38 +37 | 0 | — |
| 1677 | 1, 21, 22, 25, 26, 30 | 4, 20, 27, 30, 31, 33 +1 | 1 +adic | 30 |
| 1676 | 7, 19, 21, 22, 26, 30 | 1, 4, 7, 8, 18, 33 +22 | 1 +adic | 7 |
| 1675 | 7, 19, 21, 22, 26, 30 | 8, 25, 31, 37, 38, 39 +23 | 0 | — |
| 1674 | 7, 19, 22, 26, 30, 36 | 10, 11, 13, 16, 19, 31 +20 | 1 | 19 |
| 1673 | 7, 11, 21, 22, 26, 30 | 7, 11, 15, 17, 19, 22 +6 | 3 | 7, 11, 22 |
| 1672 | 7, 12, 21, 22, 26, 30 | 16, 18, 22, 23, 24, 36 +5 | 1 | 22 |
| 1671 | 7, 10, 22, 26, 30, 36 | 8, 12, 14, 15, 18, 27 +17 | 0 | — |
| 1670 | 7, 10, 21, 22, 26, 30 | 1, 13, 16, 22, 31, 33 +36 | 1 | 22 |
| 1669 | 5, 7, 21, 22, 26, 30 | 9, 11, 13, 30, 36, 39 +26 | 1 +adic | 30 |
| 1668 | 12, 21, 22, 23, 26, 30 | 1, 5, 7, 15, 18, 36 +28 | 0 | — |
| 1667 | 7, 21, 22, 23, 26, 30 | 4, 10, 12, 16, 23, 27 +8 | 1 | 23 |
| 1666 | 7, 12, 19, 21, 22, 30 | 7, 22, 23, 26, 27, 37 +13 | 2 | 7, 22 |
| 1665 | 7, 21, 22, 25, 26, 30 | 7, 12, 19, 23, 27, 32 +38 | 1 | 7 |
| 1664 | 10, 21, 22, 26, 30, 38 | 4, 19, 22, 23, 31, 33 +13 | 1 | 22 |
| 1663 | 16, 21, 22, 26, 30, 38 | 15, 16, 17, 25, 36, 37 +12 | 1 | 16 |
| 1662 | 11, 21, 22, 26, 28, 30 | 2, 7, 15, 21, 26, 37 +31 | 2 | 21, 26 |
| 1661 | 4, 21, 22, 26, 30, 38 | 12, 13, 23, 24, 28, 34 +27 | 0 | — |
| 1660 | 21, 22, 23, 26, 30, 38 | 10, 18, 22, 23, 33, 38 +5 | 3 | 22, 23, 38 |
| 1659 | 14, 21, 22, 26, 30, 38 | 4, 8, 13, 21, 27, 30 +17 | 2 | 21, 30 |
| 1658 | 12, 21, 22, 26, 30, 38 | 11, 20, 26, 31, 32, 38 +5 | 2 | 26, 38 |
| 1657 | 11, 21, 22, 26, 30, 38 | 1, 3, 9, 12, 22, 29 +18 | 1 | 22 |
| 1656 | 4, 21, 22, 26, 30, 38 | 9, 13, 16, 22, 24, 29 +11 | 1 | 22 |
| 1655 | 2, 21, 22, 26, 30, 38 | 3, 14, 15, 21, 22, 29 +18 | 2 | 21, 22 |
| 1654 | 4, 21, 22, 26, 30, 38 | 1, 21, 23, 29, 31, 38 +6 | 2 | 21, 38 |
| 1653 | 5, 21, 22, 26, 30, 38 | 3, 11, 21, 33, 37, 38 +7 | 2 | 21, 38 |
| 1652 | 21, 22, 26, 29, 30, 38 | 4, 5, 17, 29, 35, 38 +11 | 2 | 29, 38 |
| 1651 | 7, 21, 22, 26, 29, 30 | 2, 9, 19, 20, 21, 31 +38 | 1 | 21 |
| 1650 | 10, 21, 22, 26, 29, 30 | 3, 14, 19, 22, 32, 38 +6 | 1 | 22 |
| 1649 | 4, 8, 12, 26, 30, 34 | 6, 9, 20, 22, 29, 39 +1 | 0 | — |
| 1648 | 2, 8, 9, 12, 26, 30 | 7, 8, 12, 16, 29, 31 +18 | 2 | 8, 12 |
| 1647 | 12, 21, 26, 29, 30, 38 | 1, 2, 4, 8, 9, 35 +34 | 0 | — |
| 1646 | 12, 21, 26, 30, 31, 38 | 4, 10, 24, 30, 34, 36 +16 | 1 | 30 |
| 1645 | 12, 21, 26, 29, 30, 33 | 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 21 +16 | 1 | 21 |
| 1644 | 12, 21, 26, 29, 30, 34 | 1, 6, 10, 25, 28, 33 +21 | 0 +adic | — |
| 1643 | 12, 21, 24, 26, 29, 30 | 1, 3, 8, 24, 30, 33 +28 | 2 | 24, 30 |
| 1642 | 12, 17, 21, 24, 26, 30 | 4, 18, 19, 29, 30, 38 +3 | 1 | 30 |
| 1641 | 12, 21, 24, 25, 26, 30 | 7, 19, 33, 34, 35, 37 +3 | 0 | — |
| 1640 | 12, 21, 23, 24, 26, 30 | 7, 17, 20, 31, 32, 36 +33 | 0 | — |
| 1639 | 9, 21, 24, 26, 30, 38 | 8, 12, 15, 19, 24, 25 +27 | 1 | 24 |
| 1638 | 19, 21, 24, 26, 29, 30 | 9, 12, 14, 24, 35, 36 +2 | 1 | 24 |
| 1637 | 21, 22, 24, 26, 29, 30 | 3, 12, 15, 17, 19, 36 +23 | 0 | — |
| 1636 | 5, 21, 22, 24, 26, 30 | 4, 18, 20, 22, 30, 34 +21 | 2 +adic | 22, 30 |
| 1635 | 21, 22, 24, 26, 29, 30 | 5, 6, 7, 15, 33, 38 +18 | 0 | — |
| 1634 | 9, 21, 22, 26, 29, 30 | 5, 14, 15, 23, 25, 36 +13 | 0 | — |
| 1633 | 21, 22, 26, 30, 31, 38 | 2, 3, 9, 28, 36, 38 +25 | 1 | 38 |
| 1632 | 21, 22, 24, 26, 30, 38 | 1, 2, 13, 23, 30, 35 +24 | 1 +adic | 30 |
| 1631 | 17, 21, 22, 26, 30, 38 | 1, 4, 15, 24, 29, 33 +23 | 0 | — |
Información estadística. No garantiza premios. Juego responsable.